Susan Collins is done. Thirty years of furrowed brows, “deeply concerned” press releases, and votes that always seemed to land exactly where Mitch McConnell needed them ended Tuesday night at the hands of a logger from Allagash[1]. Greg Abbott is done too. Texas, the state Republicans treated like a permanent fortress, fired its governor by seven points and handed Democrats the state House for the first time in over two decades[2][3].
And Elon Musk? He spent at least $224 million in Texas alone trying to buy the place[4]. Both of his top Texas targets lost. Popcorn is acceptable.
So yes, celebrate. Pour something. Then read the second half of this post, because the receipts on the Democratic side of the ledger are ugly, and the voters who just handed them power did it while holding their noses so hard they nearly passed out.
| TL;DR | The receipt |
|---|---|
| Senate flipped | Democrats at 54 seats per AP, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled[5] |
| House flipped | NBC projects at least 258 Democratic seats, the most since 1993[6] |
| Collins and Abbott | Both gone. Collins to Troy Jackson, Abbott to Gina Hinojosa[1][2] |
| Musk | $474M+ spent nationally, $224M in Texas. Over 90% of America PAC's federal race money went to losers[4] |
| Fetterman | At 54 seats, Democrats can lose three votes and still pass things. His hostage power just evaporated |
| The catch | About 4 in 10 voters said their House vote was a vote against Trump. The Democratic Party itself polled at record lows all year[7][8] |
The Scoreboard
This was a wave. A real one. Democrats are on track to win the national House vote by roughly 13 points, which would be the biggest midterm margin for either party since 1974 and roughly double what Republicans pulled in their 1994 and 2010 blowouts[9].
The Senate flips are the headline. North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, and Maine all went blue, and several of them weren’t supposed to be in play in January[5]. Kansas. Read that again.
| State | Democrat | Beat | Why it stings for the GOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | Troy Jackson | Sen. Susan Collins | Her first loss since 1994. Jackson had 101 days to campaign[10] |
| Texas | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | First Texas Democrat to win a Senate race since 1988[9] |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | Trump's handpicked RNC chair, rejected |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Sen. Jon Husted | Brown lost in 2024. He came back and took the seat |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews | Sen. Darline Graham | South Carolina. Blue. Sit down |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | Sen. Roger Marshall | Hamilton already says he won't back Schumer[11] |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | Rep. Ashley Hinson | Joni Ernst's open seat, gone |
Down ballot, it got even better. Democrats flipped the Texas House and the Michigan House, picked up governorships in Georgia, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio, and broke or blocked Republican supermajorities in nine chambers across eight states[3]. Keisha Lance Bottoms beat a billionaire who self-funded more than $200 million to become Georgia’s governor[12]. Money, it turns out, has limits.
Ballot measures were mixed, and you should know that. Abortion rights won in Nevada and Virginia and Missouri’s attempt to repeal its abortion protections failed, while Idaho’s abortion measure lost and citizen-only voting amendments passed in five red states[13]. The wave was big. It wasn’t total.
Susan Collins, Concerned to the Very End
Collins conceded by phone before AP even called the race[1]. Fitting. She spent three decades telling Maine she was deeply troubled right up until the moment she voted the way Republican leadership needed, then acting surprised when the consequences showed up exactly as predicted.
Here’s the career highlight reel. Keep it handy for the next time a cable panelist calls her a moderate.
| Moment | What Collins said | What actually happened |
|---|---|---|
| Kavanaugh, Oct. 2018 | Trusted he'd respect precedent on abortion | Her vote helped confirm him 50 to 48. He joined the majority that overturned Roe in 2022[14] |
| Impeachment, Feb. 2020 | Trump learned "a pretty big lesson"[15] | Trump called it "a perfect call." A day later she called her own claim "aspirational"[16] |
| RFK Jr., 2025 | Voted to confirm. Later said "no regrets" | HHS gutted research and public health grants, including in Maine[17] |
| Big Beautiful Bill, 2025 | Opposed the Medicaid cuts | Voted to let the bill proceed, then voted no on final passage once her vote no longer decided anything[18] |
| AIPAC money, 2025-26 | Independent Maine voice | Largest recipient of AIPAC-routed money in Congress this cycle, about $3.39M[19] |
“The president has been impeached. That’s a pretty big lesson. I’m voting to acquit.”
Susan Collins to CBS News, Feb. 4, 2020[15]
Fairness check, because a hostile reader will bring it up. Collins did break with Trump at times. She voted against Pete Hegseth, whose confirmation needed JD Vance to break a 50 to 50 tie, and she voted against Kash Patel[20][18]. Her problem was timing. Her no votes almost never decided anything, and her yes votes very often did.
That’s the whole con. Maine finally stopped buying it.
Greg Abbott, Fired by Texas
Gina Hinojosa beat Abbott 52.8% to 45.7%, and Abbott conceded on election night after refusing to debate her all fall[2][21]. She’s the first Democrat elected governor of Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. The polling average had Abbott up 2.5 points. He lost by seven.
Abbott earned this. Here’s how.
The gerrymander is the cherry on top. Abbott rigged the congressional map at Trump’s request, voters responded by flipping his own state House, and Texans cast nearly 10 million votes in the governor’s race doing it[2]. You can redraw lines. You can’t redraw that many angry people.
Elon Tried to Buy Texas. Texas Said No.
Musk was the biggest known donor of the entire 2026 cycle. CNBC tallied at least $474 million in political spending, $224 million of it in Texas, including roughly $158 million pushed through a fund to the PAC that was Ken Paxton’s biggest backer[4][26]. Paxton lost by about 12 points. Abbott lost by seven.
The national results were just as brutal. CNBC’s review of FEC filings found that more than 93% of the roughly $87 million America PAC spent across 44 federal races went to races Republicans lost[4]. That follows his $20 million-plus faceplant in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race. The man keeps paying full price for the same lesson.
Musk's response on X was a joke about his "election-interfering space lasers" not working. Then he promised to keep spending if he sees a reason to. Take him at his word. The billionaire problem didn't lose on Tuesday. It just got embarrassed.
That second part matters. Musk isn’t going away, and neither is the system that lets one man drop half a billion dollars on an election. Democrats who celebrate his loss and then do nothing about campaign finance are celebrating a weather event.
Abdul El-Sayed Is the Story of the Night
El-Sayed beat Mike Rogers 52.5% to 45.5% and became the first Muslim ever elected to the United States Senate[27][28]. He’s 42, a physician, the son of Egyptian immigrants, and a former Detroit health director. He ran on Medicare for All, cancelling medical debt, and taxing billionaire wealth[29].
Then there’s the primary. AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, spent about $30.6 million in that race, $20.1 million against El-Sayed and $10.5 million for Haley Stevens, the most it has ever dropped into a single primary[30][31]. He won anyway. Stevens then endorsed Mike Rogers, which tells you everything about who she was actually loyal to.
“My name and my faith aren’t the reason you can’t afford your gas, not the reason you can’t afford your groceries, not the reason you can’t see a doctor.”
Abdul El-Sayed, Nov. 2026[32]
What El-Sayed proved
- Economic populism wins in a swing state
- AIPAC money can be beaten, even at $30M
- Islamophobic attacks don't land when the message is groceries
- A Medicare for All candidate can carry Michigan by seven
What he's already signaling
- Won't back Schumer for leader[11]
- Introduced Chris Van Hollen as the "next Senate majority leader"
- No AIPAC money
- Health care as the first fight
This is the template. A candidate the party establishment didn’t want, outspent by a lobby the establishment courts, wins a Trump state by talking about rent and insulin. Democratic leadership should be studying Michigan. Instead, they’ll probably try to take credit for it.
Fetterman Just Became a Very Expensive Paperweight
All year, John Fetterman dangled the same threat. If Democrats flipped the Senate by one seat, he’d be the 51st vote, and everyone would have to come kiss the ring[33]. Republicans openly courted him to switch parties, and analysts warned that a 51 to 49 majority would make him as powerful as the majority leader[34].
Then voters gave Democrats 54. Oops.
Remember what that hostage power would have bought. In May, Fetterman was the only Democrat to vote with Republicans on an Iran war powers resolution, and it failed 49 to 50[35]. In March, his committee vote advanced Trump’s Homeland Security nominee[36]. In September, he showed up by video at the Republican convention[33].
That poll comes from the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena, taken in August[37]. His own party’s voters can’t stand him. Republicans love him, which should tell him something about whose approval he went chasing.
Now his big bargaining chip is worth roughly as much as a Tesla in Austin. He can stay a Democrat, switch, caucus with Thune, or go back to tweeting from a hoodie. None of it changes the majority. Enjoy the irrelevance, John. You built it.
Here’s the Part Democrats Won’t Like
They won. They aren’t loved. Those are two different facts, and party leadership will spend the next month pretending the first one cancels the second.
The exit data says the same thing in plainer terms. AP’s Voter Poll of roughly 80,000 voters found about 4 in 10 cast their House vote to express opposition to Trump, while fewer than 2 in 10 voted to support him[7]. About 2 in 10 people who voted for Democratic candidates still had a negative view of the Democratic Party. AP’s own summary was that voters did not deliver a ringing endorsement of the party.
About 7 in 10 voters said Congress isn't doing enough to check the president, including about 4 in 10 Republicans. More than half called government corruption crucial to their vote[7]. That's the mandate. Check Trump. Clean up the corruption. Lower costs. Nothing about it says "keep doing what you were doing."
To be precise about it, another 4 in 10 voters said Trump wasn’t a factor in their House vote at all. So “everyone voted against Trump” overstates it. The honest version is sharper anyway. Democrats won a mandate to check Trump and fix costs, and they haven’t earned a mandate for themselves yet.
They could. That’s the opportunity.
Kill the Electoral College While You Have the Votes
Two of the last six presidential winners lost the popular vote. Democrats now have a real shot at ending that in two ways, and they should run both plays at once.
Play one, the National Popular Vote Compact
The compact is a deal between states to award their electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote, and it switches on once members total 270 electoral votes. Virginia joined in April, putting it at 18 states plus DC and 222 electoral votes, which leaves it 48 short[40][41].
Here’s the fine print. A governor alone can’t sign a state into the compact, so each of those states needs a legislature willing to pass it, and the deadline to matter for 2028 is July 20, 2028. Expect a lawsuit too. The Cato Institute already argues the compact is unconstitutional without congressional consent, and even the compact’s own backers say litigation is likely once it reaches 270[43][40].
So the state-level to-do list is short:
- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona pass the compact in 2027
- Wisconsin or Nevada follows
- Democrats in Congress pass consent legislation to blunt the Compact Clause lawsuit
- Nobody in leadership gets to say “it’s complicated” and walk away
Play two, a constitutional amendment
The compact is a workaround. An amendment is permanent. It also needs two-thirds of both chambers and 38 states, which Democrats don’t have. That’s a reason to start the fight, not to skip it.
The last serious attempt passed the House 339 to 70 in 1969 before a Senate filibuster killed it[44]. Put a version on the floor, make every senator vote, and campaign on the roll call in 2028. Here’s roughly what one could look like.
Section 1. The President and Vice President shall be elected jointly by the direct vote of the people of the United States. The pair of candidates receiving the greatest number of votes nationwide shall be elected.
Section 2. Every citizen eighteen years of age or older shall have the right to vote in such election. Congress shall have power to set uniform national standards for registration, ballot access, and the counting and certification of votes.
Section 3. The twelfth article of amendment, and clauses 2 and 3 of Section 1 of Article II, are repealed as they apply to the election of the President and Vice President.
Section 4. This article shall take effect for the first presidential election held more than one year after ratification.
Capitulation Chuck and AIPAC Shakur Need to Go. Yesterday.
Meet the leadership. Chuck Schumer, aka Capitulation Chuck, the man who has folded more times than a fitted sheet at a Bed Bath and Beyond liquidation sale. And Hakeem Jeffries, who around here goes by AIPAC Shakur, for reasons the AIPAC money section below makes pretty obvious.
Voters can’t stand either one, and the numbers are brutal. Gallup’s end-of-2025 survey put Schumer dead last among 13 national leaders at 28% approval, below Trump himself[45]. Jeffries clocked in at 37%, which sounds better until you notice a quarter of voters still have no idea who he is[46].
Even inside the party it’s ugly. An Emerson poll last December found Schumer’s net approval among Democrats ran 34 points worse than Jeffries’[47]. Jeffries isn’t loved either. He’s underwater nationally at 26% favorable and 34% unfavorable, the profile of a guy whose main selling point is that people haven’t noticed him yet[46].
Social media noticed. When Senate Democrats caved on the shutdown in November 2025, Bluesky turned into a #DumpChuck rally within hours[48]. A sample:
Schumer wants credit for seven Senate pickups. Fine. He can have a thank-you card. The candidates who actually won the hardest races, people like Troy Jackson and Abdul El-Sayed, ran as populists against the cautious lane he’s spent a decade defending, and several of them won’t vote for him[11].
| Leader | The receipt |
|---|---|
| Schumer, Mar. 2025 | Folded and helped advance the GOP spending bill, triggering calls to resign |
| Schumer, Nov. 2025 | MoveOn called on him to step aside after the shutdown collapse. Ro Khanna said he "should be replaced"[49] |
| Schumer, 2025 | Never endorsed Zohran Mamdani, his own party's nominee for mayor of his own city[50] |
| Schumer, Nov. 4, 2026 | "The issue is not me. I'll be reelected as majority leader"[51] |
| Jeffries, Oct. 2025 | Sat on a Mamdani endorsement for four months, then explained "I have not refused to endorse. I have refused to articulate my position"[52] |
| Jeffries, Nov. 2026 | Launched an unchallenged Speaker bid. Support is described as wide but not deep[53] |
Indivisible called for new Senate leadership the morning after the election[54]. Senators-elect from Michigan, Kansas, Illinois, and Maine have said they won’t back Schumer[11]. The caucus votes in early December. That’s the pressure point, and it’s about four weeks away.
Here’s the honest odds. Schumer is still expected to win his caucus vote, and Jeffries has no declared challenger[11][55]. That doesn’t make them right. It makes the next month the moment to make their colleagues pay a price for keeping them.
Who Should Lead the Charge
My dream is Speaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Speaker Ilhan Omar. I’ll be straight with you though. Nobody is floating either of them for Speaker right now, and AOC herself discouraged the primary challenge to Jeffries last year[56]. So treat that as the long game and look at who can move power right now.
| Who | Lane | Why them |
|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna (CA-17) | House leadership, 2028 | Called for Schumer's replacement early. Co-led the bipartisan Epstein files push with Thomas Massie[49] |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) | House, DSA-endorsed | Biggest organizer in the party. Campaigned for Troy Jackson in Maine |
| Ilhan Omar (MN-5) | House, progressive | Has taken every right-wing hit there is and kept winning |
| Rashida Tlaib (MI-12) | House, DSA-endorsed | No AIPAC money, ever. Michigan just proved her lane wins statewide |
| Summer Lee (PA-12) | House, DSA-endorsed | Survived AIPAC-backed spending in Pittsburgh. Organizer energy |
| Greg Casar (TX-37) | Progressive Caucus chair | Texas just flipped. He's the bridge from the caucus to the state that did it |
| Chris Van Hollen (MD) | Senate leader | El-Sayed's pick for majority leader. Floated alongside Schatz, Murphy, and Booker[57] |
Add the new class to that list. El-Sayed and Troy Jackson in the Senate, plus House winners like Darializa Avila Chevalier, who won’t commit to voting for Jeffries, and Aisha Wahab, who beat $1.64 million in AIPAC-backed spending[30]. They have numbers now. They should vote like it.
AIPAC Money Should Be Disqualifying
Here’s the standard, and it’s simple enough to fit on a yard sign. Refuse AIPAC and United Democracy Project money, disclose what you’ve taken, or expect a primary. That’s it. This is about a lobby’s money and the votes that follow it, and nothing else.
And no, AIPAC didn’t go away. On Oct. 21 it announced it would stop endorsing candidates and stop direct PAC giving, while saying it wants to expand individual giving and use “new tools” to help its friends win[58][59]. In plain English, it’s taking its name off the check[60]. The money is still coming.
United Democracy Project. That's AIPAC's super PAC, and it keeps operating with unlimited fundraising. It put about $13 million into candidates and committees this cycle and another $53.5 million into independent ads[61].
Watch for generic-sounding pass-through PACs too. AIPAC hasn't named its "new tools," but UDP already ran money through front groups in Democratic primaries, and donations that used to show up as "via AIPAC" will now look like plain checks from individual supporters[62].
So the standard has to follow the money. “No AIPAC PAC money” is about to be a meaningless pledge. The real test is UDP spending, AIPAC-organized bundles, and the vote record that follows. About $105 million moved through AIPAC’s PAC and UDP this cycle, and nothing in the October announcement shrinks that number[58].
| Member | Party | Through AIPAC PAC, 2025-26 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Collins (ME) | R | $3.39M | Defeated |
| Wesley Bell (MO-1) | D | $2.30M | Primary target |
| Jared Moskowitz (FL-23) | D | $1.47M | Primary target |
| Tom Cotton (AR) | R | $1.10M | Name him anyway |
| John Cornyn (TX) | R | $1.06M | Lost his primary |
| Dan Sullivan (AK) | R | $1.01M | Trailing, uncalled |
| Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-25) | D | $884K | Primary target |
| Mike Lawler (NY-17) | R | $873K | Conceded |
| Jon Husted (OH) | R | $864K | Defeated |
| Ritchie Torres (NY-15) | D | $856K | Primary target |
| Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5) | D | $817K | Primary target |
| Greg Landsman (OH-1) | D | $782K | Primary target |
| Cory Booker (NJ) | D | $702K | Has since sworn off all PAC money |
| Juan Ciscomani (AZ-6) | R | $695K | Name him anyway |
| Brad Sherman (CA-32) | D | $672K | Primary target |
Leadership isn’t clean either. FEC-based trackers put Jeffries at about $1.28 million in AIPAC and UDP support across his career and Schumer at about $95,000 from AIPAC’s PAC directly[63][64]. Across this cycle, 111 Democrats took money routed through AIPAC’s PAC[65].
The Democrats who already walked away
Some members got there on their own. Morgan McGarvey (KY-3) said in August 2025 that he no longer takes AIPAC money. Seth Moulton (MA-6) returned about $35,000. Deborah Ross and Valerie Foushee in North Carolina made pledges in 2025. Cory Booker cut off all PAC money for 2026, after taking $702K earlier in the cycle. Abdul El-Sayed never took it, and won Michigan against $20 million of it[30].
The Republicans on that list aren’t ours to purge. Name them anyway, because AIPAC’s pitch has always been bipartisanship, and Tuesday showed what that bipartisan money bought. Collins, Husted, and Cornyn all lost, and Lawler conceded. For the Democrats on the list, the fix is in the primary calendar. 2028 filing deadlines start sooner than you think.
What “Deliver” Actually Means
A 54-seat Senate isn’t a supermajority. Trump still has a veto pen, and Democrats can’t override it[53]. So delivering means picking fights that either pass or put every Republican on the record before 2028.
Can happen now
- Subpoenas and real oversight of Trump's corruption
- Appropriations fights over Medicaid restoration
- Floor votes on a stock trading ban
- State compact bills in PA, MI, AZ, and WI
- Blocking every unqualified nominee, no "concerned" votes
Force the vote, campaign on the roll call
- Filibuster reform
- Supreme Court term limits
- The John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act
- An Electoral College amendment
- Taxing billionaire wealth, which Wyden's Finance Committee says it'll take up
Jeffries has already named undoing $900 billion in Republican Medicaid cuts as a goal. Good. Write it down, put a date on it, and watch. Voters gave Democrats the keys while openly telling pollsters they don’t trust them, and that trust gets earned in public, one roll call at a time.
Every week, we’ll be tracking it. Starting now.
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