If Trump was ever “for the working class,” so was Enron. He inherited a growing economy, juiced it with billionaire tax cuts, then crashed it into a pandemic wall. Biden took the wheel in a pile of economic rubble—and still rebuilt it faster than any president in modern history.
By the end of 2024, the U.S. wasn’t just recovering—it was leading the world. Jobs up. Wages up. Inflation down. Stocks climbing. But Trump is back. And just months into his second act, the markets are already flinching.
You wanted the vibes. You’re getting the volatility.
⚡️ TL;DR: The Real Economic Scoreboard
| Metric | Trump 1.0 (2017–2021) | Biden (2021–2025) | Trump 2.0 (2025 YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Jobs Created | –2.9 million | +15.6 million | +320,000 (Q1) |
| Average GDP Growth | +1.4% | +3.25% | +1.6% (Q1 est.) |
| Median Real Wages | +$14 (2017–21) | +$11 (2021–25) | –$4 (Q1) |
| Inflation (YoY Avg) | 1.9% | 5.4% → 2.4% | 2.6% (Mar) |
| S&P 500 Performance | +69.6% | +33.9% | –3.2% (YTD) |
| Federal Deficit | –$3.1T (2020 peak) | –$1.83T (FY2024) | Rising again (CBO: $1.9T est.) |
| Consumer Sentiment | Collapsed to 71.8 (2020) | Recovered to 79.4 (late 2024) | Down to 73.2 (March 2025) |
Real Wages and Job Growth: Trump Talked, Biden Delivered
Trump sold himself as the blue-collar billionaire. But let’s check the receipts.
Median Real Wages: Who Actually Boosted Pay?
Real wages—the money that actually matters after inflation—rose under both presidents, but Biden continued the trend despite a historic inflation spike.
| Quarter | Median Real Weekly Earnings | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2017 | $349 | [1] |
| Q1 2021 | $363 | [1] |
| Q4 2024 | $378 | [1] |
| Q1 2025 | $374 | [1] |
| Net Change | Trump: +$14 | Biden: +$11 | — |
Job Growth: One Lost Jobs, One Set Records
Let’s kill the “Trump was good for jobs” myth for good.
Trump left office with fewer jobs than he started with—the first president since Hoover to do so. Biden? He added over 15.6 million.
| Administration | Start | End | Jobs Change | Monthly Avg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump (2017–2021) | 145.6M | 142.7M | –2.9M | –59,938 | [2] |
| Biden (2021–2025) | 142.7M | 158.3M | +15.6M | +311,960 | [2] |
| Summary | Net Difference (Biden vs. Trump) | +18.5M | +371,898 | — | |
GDP Growth—The Real Economic Pulse
You can meme about gas prices all day, but GDP is where economists look when they want to know if a country is actually growing.
Trump’s first few years? Decent, if unspectacular. Then came the cliff: a 30% drop in Q2 2020. Biden? He stepped in mid-disaster, stabilized the ship, and delivered consistently strong growth even while battling global inflation, war shocks, and a Fed hell-bent on raising rates.
Annual Real GDP Growth Rates
| Year | Trump (%) | Biden (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +2.3 | — | [7] |
| 2018 | +3.0 | — | [7] |
| 2019 | +2.5 | — | [7] |
| 2020 | –2.2 | — | [7] |
| 2021 | — | +5.8 | [7] |
| 2022 | — | +1.9 | [7] |
| 2023 | — | +2.5 | [7] |
| 2024 | — | +2.8 | [7] |
| Average | +1.4% | +3.25% | — |
Quarterly Chaos: Trump’s Pandemic Cliff Dive
| Quarter | Real GDP Growth (SAAR %) | President | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2020 | –29.9% | Trump | [7] |
| Q3 2020 | +34.3% | Trump | [7] |
| Q1 2021 | +6.0% | Biden | [7] |
| Q2 2021 | +7.0% | Biden | [7] |
| Q3 2023 | +4.9% | Biden | [7] |
| Q4 2024 | +2.4% | Biden | [7] |
“Trump’s economy hit a wall. Biden built a new road.”
Inflation Panic & Deficit Lies
MAGA talking point #1: “Inflation was low under Trump!”
Sure, if you ignore that he left office during a global demand crash, and ran trillion-dollar deficits in peacetime before COVID even hit.
Inflation did spike under Biden—but that’s only half the story. The other half? It’s now lower than when Trump’s economy was flatlining, and wages are finally rising faster than prices again.
Inflation Timeline: Pandemic Spike, Global Surge, Steady Decline
| Administration | CPI-U (Avg %) | Core CPI-U (Avg %) | PCE (Avg %) | Core PCE (Avg %) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump (2017–2020) | ~1.9% | ~2.0% | ~1.7% | ~1.7% | [10][11][12] |
| Biden (2021–Mar 2025) | ~5.4% | ~4.7% | ~4.5% | ~3.9% | [10][11][12] |
| Latest (Mar 2025) | +2.4% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +2.8% | BLS [14] |
The Federal Deficit: Who Really Blew the Budget?
Trump exploded the deficit before COVID with the 2017 tax cuts. Then the pandemic hit, and both parties spent big. But the idea that Biden inherited a balanced budget? Laughable.
And under Trump 2.0? It’s already widening again.
| Fiscal Year | Deficit ($B) | Deficit (% GDP) | Public Debt (% GDP) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | –$666B | –3.4% | 75.6% | [17] |
| FY2020 | –$3.13T | –14.7% | 100.1% | [17] |
| FY2021 | –$2.78T | –11.7% | 97.8% | [17] |
| FY2024 | –$1.83T | –6.3% | 97.1% | [17] |
| FY2025 (proj.) | –$1.9T | –6.2% | Rising again | [19] |
Wall Street’s Verdict? Trump’s Back, and It’s Nervous
Markets don’t vote red or blue—they vote green. And when Trump re-entered the White House in January 2025, the market didn’t throw a parade. It tightened its sphincter.
The S&P 500 has dropped 3.2% since inauguration day. The Dow? Down too. Investors are skittish, the bond market’s flashing warning signs, and volatility is creeping back.
Compare that to the 33.9% gain under Biden and you see the shift. Loud talk and bad trade policy don’t inspire confidence. Stability does.
S&P 500 and Dow Performance: Who Really Made You Money?
| Administration | Index | Start | End | % Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump (2017–2021) | S&P 500 | 2,271.31 | 3,851.85 | +69.6% | [24] |
| Trump (2017–2021) | Dow Jones | 19,827.25 | 31,188.38 | +57.3% | [25] |
| Biden (2021–2025) | S&P 500 | 3,851.85 | 5,158.20 | +33.9% | [24] |
| Biden (2021–2025) | Dow Jones | 31,188.38 | 38,170.41 | +22.4% | [25] |
| Trump 2.0 (2025 YTD) | S&P 500 | 5,328.10 | 5,158.20 | –3.2% | [24] |
The Tax Scam—Trump Took Care of the Billionaires
Trump called it the “biggest tax cut in history.” He was half right—it was massive. But it wasn’t for you.
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act slashed corporate tax rates permanently, threw temporary breadcrumbs at the middle class, and handed the top 1% a golden shovel to bury inequality even deeper.
Meanwhile, most of the individual tax cuts expire after 2025. Corporate cuts? Permanent. Funny how that works.
Who Benefited from the TCJA?
Here’s what happened to average federal tax rates by income group, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s post-TCJA analysis [19]:
| Income Group | Pre-TCJA Avg Tax Rate (%) | Post-TCJA Avg Tax Rate (%) | Change (pp) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest Quintile | 1.2% | 0.8% | –0.4 | [19] |
| Second Quintile | 5.3% | 4.5% | –0.8 | [19] |
| Middle Quintile | 9.4% | 8.3% | –1.1 | [19] |
| Fourth Quintile | 13.9% | 12.6% | –1.3 | [19] |
| Top Quintile | 22.9% | 20.5% | –2.4 | [19] |
| Top 1% | 32.4% | 28.6% | –3.8 | [19] |
Champagne for the 1%, Crumbs for Everyone Else
“Trump cut your taxes? Cool. Until 2026, when yours expire—and Jeff Bezos’s don’t.”
Borders, Crime, and Culture War Bait
If you can’t win on jobs, wages, or growth, scream about “open borders” and “trans athletes.”
That’s been the GOP playbook since facts stopped working for them. But here’s the kicker: border crossings surged under both Trump and Biden, crime data is too messy to draw simple lines, and no one’s 401(k) was wrecked by a drag show.
Border Encounters: A Bipartisan Surge
Border “encounters” hit record levels under Biden, yes—but the rise started under Trump, and it’s a global trend. Migration exploded post-COVID due to economic instability, climate disasters, and cartel-driven chaos. Biden ended Title 42, which artificially suppressed numbers with quick expulsions that didn’t count as deportations.
| Fiscal Year | Encounters | Title 42 in Effect? | President |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | ~303,000 | No | Trump |
| FY2019 | ~851,000 | No | Trump |
| FY2021 | ~1.73M | Yes (until May 2023) | Biden |
| FY2022 | ~2.38M | Yes | Biden |
| FY2023 | ~2.06M | Yes (ended mid-year) | Biden |
Crime Trends: FBI Data Is a Wreck
Want to talk about crime? Cool—then let’s talk about how broken the national data is.
The FBI transitioned from the old Summary Reporting System (SRS) to NIBRS in 2021. As a result, 40% of law enforcement agencies didn’t report in 2021–2022, making national comparisons a statistical dumpster fire.
Here’s what we can say:
- Homicides spiked in 2020–2021 (pandemic + unrest)
- Property crime kept declining
- Biden’s DOJ increased funding for local law enforcement
- Most “crime surge” narratives are based on cherry-picked local anecdotes
“You know what kills more Americans than migrants? Fentanyl. Know who increased funding for that fight? Biden.”
Interlude: The “Woke” Freakout Is a Copout
Let me guess: you’re “just asking questions” about why girls can’t win track meets anymore, and you’re sick of “woke” stuff like cancel culture and kids being confused about gender.
Here’s a tip: when someone shouts “woke!”—they’ve run out of economic arguments.
You say you’re mad about “trans kids changing sexes”? Cool. Then explain why the economy collapsed in 2020. Or why Trump added $8 trillion to the debt. Or why he lost more jobs than any president since the Great Depression.
Spoiler: a nonbinary seventh grader didn’t crash your retirement fund.
And as for “men dominating women’s sports”? Show us the league tables. One-off viral clips aren’t policy arguments. They’re culture war clickbait—fed to you by people who hope you won’t look at the Fed’s balance sheet.
We get it. “Woke” is your safe word when reality feels threatening.
But this blog isn’t a safe space. Here, we bring data, not dog whistles.
TL;DR:
- Border encounters surged under both Trump and Biden
- Crime spiked in 2020 and started falling by 2023
- FBI crime data is incomplete post-2021
- Your economic problems weren’t caused by a nonbinary teen at a swim meet
Education, Defense & Public Mood
Economic numbers matter. But how people feel about the economy is political gold. And under Biden, even through inflation and war shocks, sentiment began recovering. Schools were reopening. Wages were outpacing inflation. People started breathing again.
Then Trump came back—and consumer sentiment dropped like a stone.
Education: COVID Wrecked It, Biden Stabilized It
- NAEP scores dropped significantly after 2020.
- Funding per student increased, thanks to federal pandemic aid passed under both Trump and Biden.
- Long-term trends in math and reading were already stagnating before the pandemic. COVID just hit fast-forward.
“Trump closed schools, Biden reopened them. Now they blame CRT for the learning gap.”
Military Spending: Same Money, Different Priorities
- Trump increased the Pentagon’s budget—but undermined NATO, botched Syria, and gave the Taliban a peace deal.
- Biden kept funding strong—but actually used diplomacy, stabilized NATO post-Ukraine, and increased Indo-Pacific alliances.
“Trump spent billions on missiles. Biden spent billions making allies not hate us.”
Public Sentiment: The Mood Was Improving—Then Trump Walked In
Using the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, we can track how Americans felt:
- 2020: Cratered under Trump during COVID.
- 2021–22: Stayed low under Biden as inflation soared.
- 2023–24: Steady rebound as inflation cooled, job growth surged.
- 2025: Decline resumes as Trump 2.0 stokes uncertainty.
“People don’t need to read GDP charts. They feel whether the economy works. And right now? They’re feeling Trump’s stink again.”
Trump’s Back—and the Recovery Is Already Bleeding
Trump inherited a growing economy in 2017 and left it in a ditch by 2021—worse job numbers than Hoover, exploding deficits, and a stock market in freefall.
Biden picked up the wreckage and, against every headwind possible—pandemic scars, global inflation, war in Ukraine—rebuilt faster than any modern president:
- 15.6 million jobs added
- GDP growth more than doubled Trump’s average
- Wages rose even during inflation
- Markets soared
- Inflation? Peaked and cooled
- Deficit? Down nearly 50% from Trump’s peak
And now?
Trump 2.0 waltzes back into power in January 2025—and within three damn months:
- The S&P 500 drops 3.2%
- Consumer confidence falls
- Bond yields spike
- The deficit widens again
We’ve seen this movie. It ends with a recession and a bailout for billionaires.
You don’t need to love Biden. Hell, be mad about the border. Protest student debt. Demand better.
But if you think Trump is the working-class savior while handing trillions to the rich, you’ve been conned by a guy who literally branded his own steaks.
Final Thought:
If Trump really built the economy, why did it collapse the second he had to govern through a crisis?
Biden stabilized it.
Trump? He’s already screwing it again.
Sources
[1] Median Real Weekly Earnings – BLS via FRED
[2] Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment – BLS via FRED
[7] Real Gross Domestic Product – BEA via FRED
[10] Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers – BLS via FRED
[11] Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – BEA via FRED
[12] Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index – BEA via FRED
[14] Consumer Price Index – March 2025 Report – BLS
[17] Federal Deficit as % of GDP – U.S. Treasury via FRED
[19] Budget and Economic Outlook – Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
[24] S&P 500 Index – FRED
[25] Dow Jones Industrial Average – FRED
[27] University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – FRED
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